A major political polling firm, Rasmussen, has published a study that indicates the Tea Party groups have much more clout in the minds of voters than you might think. Here is what they said:
Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters
December 4-5, 2009
| Suppose the Tea Party organized itself as a political party. When thinking about the next election for Congress, would you vote for the Republican candidate from your district, the Democratic candidate from your district or the Tea Party candidate from your district? |
|
|---|---|
Democratic | 36% |
Tea Party | 23% |
Republican | 18% |
Not sure | 22 |
However, the study above is misleading, because the REAL Tea Party folks do NOT intend to be a separate party, and many Tea Party followers consider themselves Republicans, as we explain below.
We know the Tea Party in Lake County has some clout and organization, resulting in a very organized campaign for Patricia Sullivan, a Republican running against Democrat Alan (My Congressman is Nuts) Grayson. (You can tell my bias). But the national Tea Party and the local one do not believe in starting a new party, but instead to run under either of the two major parties, R or D, and won't support third party candidates. Not long ago, some Tea Party "supporters" elsewhere in Florida got the "Tea Party" listed as another 3rd party in Florida, which conflicts with the philosophy of most Tea Partiers about running only as an R or D. And, they leave the door open for supporting D candidates if the R's don't make the grade. Some think the move to setup the Tea Party as an independent party in Florida is a spoiler campaign by Dems who want to see them split the Republican vote in upcoming elections. I don't think this will happen. If anything, existing Tea Party groups may change their name to avoid the confusion by "wanna be" groups who are trying the steal the "Tea Party" name.
A big part of the REAL Tea Party appeal is to locate and only support "vetted" candidates who meet 70% of an 80 question qualification questionnaire, and then get approved by an interview panel. Compare this to current Republican and Democrat programs where anyone who is registered in their party can run and most likely get votes by party members without ANY objective vetting to screen out RINO's or DINO's ( liberals who are Republicans in Name Only, etc.)
And part of the Tea Party mantra is to eliminate the backdoor financing of Federal (and to some extent State and local) campaigns by candidates taking "special interest" funds to support groups or firms later with earmark payoffs. It is an ethics issue, and resounds with many. Thus REAL Tea Party candidates with enough grass roots organization and support are trouncing old style incumbents who spend SIX times as much funds as an incumbent known to payoff financial supporters with various contracts, zoning and earmark deals.
Thus tea party organizers do LOTS of background research on who contributed to incumbents, why, and then investigate for evidence of payoff earmarks, etc. Once they find it, that is the evidence used to kill the campaign of an incumbent. That is what happened in Utah, and they now are lining up California Senator Barbara Boxer and other national candidates for the next removal, since she took over a documented $1-million from supporters to vote for programs against the interest of most citizens. The same pattern can be researched related to contributions from Builders, Unions, CSX (supporter of the Florida SunRail railroad), etc. So, ethics in government may actually win in the future, and both the Republicans and Dems have to modify their financing methods and behavior, or get trounced by the new Tea Party candidates who I believe are attracting a rising tide of voters tired of the "same old politics".
The article below discusses a Rasmussen Poll that indicates the Tea Party candidates in some places would get a higher vote than GOP candidates if they were separate parties.
Why? Too many Republican groups and candidates (as well as Dems) still represent the old style politics and many voters won't go for it anymore, according to the poll.
As the article says, the GOP party (and I am one) needs to pay attention to why the public feels this way (same for Dems ). But, don't assume from the survey below that the Republicans would lose if the REAL Tea Party follows their stated philosophy of only running as R or D. The Tea Party folks don't want to be a spoiler in a close election, causing Dems to win like happened with Ralph Nader, thus if you add the GOP and Tea party supporter percents from the poll, they always seem to win over the Dems. So, it would behoove the Republicans to make nice and respect the Tea Parties and maybe adopt some of their practices. And, ethical candidates of either party should try to get vetted by the Tea Party using that 80 item questionnaire.
For instance, if a GOP favorite or personality is known to take funds from special interests, and that official supports his funders instead of doing what is right for the residents, then maybe they need to rethink that old pattern. Especially because the Tea Party will be doing background research and disclose the unethical decisions made supporting funders.
I would not be surprised if Sarah Palin at some point passes the Tea Party questionnaire and gets their official support as well as Republican support for whatever office she plans to run for.
You will REALLY know I am right when you see more Republicans and THEN Blue Dog Democrats seeking Tea Party approvals and modifying their voting and fund raising behaviors.
vj
Below is the first article I found - or you can go to the Rasmussen website HERE for more details. It is interesting to note these survey results are NOT showing up yet in mainstream media, but in blogs, which may tell you the bias of the media. Watch to see if they report it in the next few days. vj
Poll: Tea Party beats the GOPDecember 7, 11:13 AM
According to Rasmussen, if the Tea Party were its own political party it would be more popular than the GOP. Highlights:
- In a three way generic ballot, Democrats would attract 36% of the vote, Tea Party 23% of the vote, and the GOP 18% of the vote.
- Among Independents, 33 % would vote Tea Party candidate, 30% are undecided, 25% would vote Democrat, and just 12% prefer the GOP.
- Almost as many Republicans would vote Tea Party (33%) as would vote GOP (39%).
- Seventy percent of Republican voters have a favorable opinion of the Tea Party movement, 43% of Independents have a favorable opinion, and 49% of Democrats have no opinion one way or the other.
- Forty-one percent of all voters nationwide say Republicans and Democrats are so much alike that we need a new party.
Could we be looking at the rise of a third political party?
